Low voter turnout

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Submitted by Alex G. Tsakumis on October 30, 2008 - 3:04pm.

Peter wins if there is a low voter turnout and he can continue to expose weaknesses in Gregor’s initiatives:  In the last month Gregor’s messaging is all over the map.  Also, in the West End as in Fairview slopes, there are pockets of hardliner Vision support that by November 15th will have gone to the polls thrice:  Federally, provincially and then municipally.  It is an understatement to suggest that they are fatigued.  And most of that new support for Vision is young, who are typically tough to get out on election day.  Combine that with greater fatigue across the city, and a lower turnout always favours the NPA.  Peter’s economic message is resonating with the public.  His experience is showing.

 

Gregor wins if he can change his narrative and embrace the middle again.  His dance with the devil (COPE) has not helped erase in the minds of the public that Vision may have to pander to special interests in far left wing quarters.  He started this campaign 22 points ahead of Peter.  Gregor now trails Peter by three points: A stunning turnaround.  Gregor needs to be able to counter-punch effectively in the debates.  Thus far, he has shown a very surprising, glass jaw.  Peter has been hammering him, but with great precision, and Gregor has been hopeless in his replies.  Astonishing.

 

Peter’s greatest vulnerability is that he is not only battling Gregor, but he is fighting the Ghosts of Sullivan.  There is a significant swath of the public who want the NPA to “pay” for the interminable folly of the last three years.  Peter needs to replace Eco-Density; kill Civil City, which has been a complete failure, and come up with a drug (treatment) and mental illness strategy, even if it means specifics on how to lobby other levels of government.  He is needs to pace himself on his attacks.  Most have been very successful, but some have been too cutting.
Gregor’s greatest vulnerability is that his messaging, in the latter part of the campaign, has tanked.  He is contradicting himself across key issues, showcasing his inexperience, and his spin-doctors are not helping by trying to manipulate the media after the fact:  Gregor wants drug treatment, but also won’t rule out more injection sites (lunacy!); he wants greater housing affordability, but his plan will significantly raise taxes; he wants more police, but hasn’t costed that item properly either.  Considering that at the beginning of this campaign, some of us were wondering if this man had ever turned water into wine or was ever a teacher in Galilee…his campaign has stalled--badly.