Ladner head to head with Robertson

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Submitted by Erin Airton on October 30, 2008 - 3:07pm.

Non-Partisan Association mayoralty candidate Peter Ladner wins if he can maintain the traditional base of the NPA on the west side and continue to build on the gains that the party made during the last two elections on the east side with young families and with ethnic Chinese voters.  He has managed to attract good candidates onto his team and the mixture of experience and diversity should play well with voters.   The results in Vancouver South show that voters are volatile, and Ladner will need to continue to articulate the balance between a strong civic government and one that doesn’t cost an arm and leg to operate.

Vision Vancouver mayoralty candidate Gregor Robertson wins if he can get his amalgamated Vision/COPE vote to show up on election day.  The biggest risk of Vision is, that in the race to City Hall, it trampled all over one of the strongest franchises in municipal politics – COPE.  Instead of re-building within an existing base, Robertson chose to step outside of it and voters tend to not reward that approach – ask anyone on the right side of the spectrum during our own years in the wilderness due to vote splitting.  At the end of the day, the Conservatives ended up the Conservatives because of the importance of a well-known and respected name brand.

Peter Ladner’s biggest vulnerability is his record of incumbency because he has all the baggage that goes with coming from the ruling party but none of the electoral bonus from having been in the Mayor’s seat for the photo ops during that time.  He’ll need to clearly and vividly articulate his own vision for where he sees the City going during these challenging times but also maintain a strong, united party and keep the support of his NPA running mates.

Gregor Robertson’s biggest vulnerability is the crazy coalition that he has stitched together because you only need a couple of cracks in a party before it can all start to go terribly wrong.  Somehow the true believers from COPE have allowed themselves to be subverted into the machine of Vision Vancouver without kicking up too much fuss.  Maybe they’ve become like Elizabeth May – happy to sell their souls for someone else’s political success.  Sadly, if COPE councillors aren’t elected, it will probably be the end of the party.